Forum:2011 Pacific typhoon season
Welcome I don't know if anyone will be here for now, but here's a fine start to the Pacific typhoon season! Ryan1000 22:17, January 18, 2011 (UTC) December 25W.NONAME 93W.INVEST It's here, but I doubt it would form.Cyclone10 03:09, December 3, 2011 (UTC) Still here, realy close to the Equator.Cyclone10 02:57, December 4, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Depression 25W Now a depression. 13R. '' 14:22, December 4, 2011 (UTC) Who knew?Cyclone10 16:46, December 4, 2011 (UTC) Not going to make a landfall now.Cyclone10 21:23, December 4, 2011 (UTC) Is this expected to become a named storm? Andrew444TalkBlog 23:00, December 4, 2011 (UTC) Not even close.Cyclone10 23:11, December 4, 2011 (UTC) Remnants of 25W What a fail. '''Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 02:55,12/5/2011 what an epic fail i will sayAllanjeffs 23:43, December 10, 2011 (UTC) 26W.NONAME 94W.INVEST Another one. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 15:49,12/10/2011 Now a TD per JMA, and TCFA issued. ''13R. '' 21:14, December 10, 2011 (UTC) TCFA cancelled, guess this isn't happening. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 07:36,12/11/2011 2 people were killed from this storm. ''13R. '' 10:14, December 11, 2011 (UTC) At this rate, we may not get another WPAC storm! Andrew444TalkBlog 13:22, December 11, 2011 (UTC) Still a TD. ''13R. '' 17:30, December 11, 2011 (UTC) Medium chance by JTWC. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 19:49,12/11/2011 Tropical Depression 26W Who knew!-- ...That this would even exist. This thing will collapse by tomorrow or later today. It won't become our next named system, I don't think. 'Ryan1000 21:43, December 12, 2011 (UTC) Yeah...this looks dead on satellite. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 01:37,12/13/2011 Gone. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 21:10,12/13/2011 :What a fail...it could be compared to 25W.Cyclone10 02:18, December 14, 2011 (UTC) 27W.NONAME 95W.INVEST THIS ONE is the one we need to watch! Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 03:29,12/13/2011 TCFA issued. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 03:30,12/13/2011 Now td 27Allanjeffs 12:10, December 13, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Depression 27W It's here. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 13:10,12/13/2011 : This wave is starting to remind me of the precursor of 2006's Typhoon Durian a little bit. While I don't think this storm will get that strong, it still could be a pretty nasty storm for the Philippines in the future. Durian was the costliest typhoon in the history of the Archapelago, with over 13 billion dollars in damage, and it was also the deadliest typhoon to hit the Philippines in a very long time. This storm would become Washi if it does become named, and its PAGASA name would be'' Sendong''. Hopefully they won't get hit too hard, but we already have the record number of PAGASA retirees this season. This could easily be our next one. Ryan1000 14:22, December 13, 2011 (UTC) :: After looking at the visible satillite images, the LLCC is a bit to the right of the thunderstorms.Cyclone10 00:14, December 14, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm 27W Upgraded.Cyclone10 13:11, December 14, 2011 (UTC) : According to latest JMA forecasts this probably would be named after midnight UTC tonight. I am curious what this thing will be doing after it crossed the Philippines. There are three interesting factors. First, the waters in the South China Sea east of Ho Tschi Minh City are already quite cool what could lead to a quick extratropical transition. The other thing is wether it will only brush the coast of the Southern Vietnam or if it will landfall there. However, if the system is managing to get in the Gulf of Thailand, where SSTs still support tropical development, it might cross over the Isthmus of Kra and go Indic. -- 13:39, December 14, 2011 (UTC) Farewell This year might not have been more of a epic fail than 2010, but this season looked like it was dead after October. Cyclone10 21:19, November 30, 2011 (UTC) It wasn't the worst, but it does tie 1977 for the third least active WPac year on record. Only last year and 1998 had fewer storms than 2011. Also, the last category 5 storm of this year was Muifa back in July. I'm pretty sure no other worldwide year has ever had their last category 5 storm that early. Nanmadol came really close, but it peaked at 155 mph, not 160 or higher. Ryan1000 18:09, December 3, 2011 (UTC) Retirements at a Glance We have some storms and some possible retirement canidates in the WPac. Anyone have any calls here? Here's mine: *Aere - 40% - It killed more than 40 people in the Philipines and caused several million dollars in damage. If it's PAGASA name, Bebeng, became retired, Aere itself also has a chance as well. However, just because a storm´s PAGASA name becomes retired doesn´t exactly mean it´s JMA name will too. *Songda - 8% - A very rare May category 5, but fortunately it didn't cause signifigant damage on land. *Sarika - 45% - Well, this thing did do 248 million in damage and 29 deaths, so although Sarika was the weakest storm thus far, it was also the most damaging storm thus far with a moderate death toll, so it certainly has a chance. But like Ma-On, China has seen much worse (Chanchu, Saomai, Bilis, Rananim, ect). *Haima - 5% - It was minor, and caused no more impact than Songda, in general. *Meari - 5% - It was feared to be stronger, but it never caused signifigant damage on land. *Ma-on - 10% - It only hit as a category one storm, it apparently wasn´t that bad after all. It did do about 27 million in damages and kill 5 people, but Japan has seen much worse than that. *Tokage - 0% - What an epic fail. *Nock-Ten - 65% - It killed a lot of people in the Philipines and Vietnam, but it's not like they haven't seen this before (Xangsane, Angela, Durian, etc.), so I'm going to be conservative and say maybe to Nock-Ten. However, "Juaning" is gone due to the damage and deaths it did in the Philipines. *Muifa - 65% - The latest damage figure is out, and my opinion on Muifa is similar to mine on Sarika; it killed a fair ammount of people and cause somewhat extensive damage, but the areas affected by Muifa have gone through much worse. *Merbok - 0% - Other than becoming a typhoon briefly, what did this thing do? *Nanmadol - 75% - Destruction in the Philipines and Taiwan was quite severe, so this thing is the first storm with a serious chance of retirement. *Talas - 75% - Whoa, I didn't expect to see 59 deaths in Japan from this typhoon. It dropped near-record rainfall in some places and was very devastating too. Overall, Japan has seen worse, and it's not a gurantee, but still, 59 deaths is a big number for Japan, and it has a descent chance of getting the boot. *Noru - 0% - Did I miss something? *Kulap - 0% - It tried. *Roke - 20% - It killed 13 people, but Talas was much worse for them, not to mention Japan has seen typhoons like Roke almost every year. *Sonca - 0% - Gave me something to look at for a few days. *Nesat - 75% - Over 60 deaths, lots of damage, this thing's definitely a canidate. *Haitang - 5% - Nothing exceptionally severe. *Nalgae - 20% - Super typhoon landfall in the Philipines, but it killed only 10 people, so chances aren't exactly in favor of us seeing a retirement with Nalgae. *Banyan - 20% - No severe impacts, so probrably no retirement. Ryan1000 17:09, September 3, 2011 (UTC) Mine: JMA: ''' Aere - 80% - DEVESTATED a whole country, left millions of dollars in it's path, got its PAGASA name removed, no way this monster is staying, he'd have to pull a Karl not to be removed. Songda - 4% - Very notable, but little damage. Sarika - 95% - '''EXTREMELY damaging, was worse than Aere, and left lots of damage to China. I don't think Sarika has a chance of staying at all. Haima - 25% - Added on to Sarika, but not much. Meari - 0% - OOOH...FISHIE! Ma-on - 40% - I saw the waves crash on shore (via video) and Ma-on has a good chance. Tokage - 0% - Nothing at all. Nock-ten - 70% - $140 million (of) damages and 55 deaths in Vietnam, China and the Philippines? Likely to be retired this December. Muifa - 50% - Devestated China, Korea, and and Japan! This has a VERY good shot at going. But then, it wasn't Aere or Sarika bad. Merbok - 0% - Okay... what did this do? Nanmadol - 50% - See Ma-on's section Talas - 40% - See Ma-on's section. Noru - 0% - Fishie. Kulap - 0% - Epic FAIL! Roke - 20% - Overshadowed by Talas. Sonca - 0% - No. Nesat - 99% - See Pedring's section. Haitang - 10% - Overshadowed by Sarika and Haima. Nalgae - 90% - See Nesat's and Pedring's sections. Banyan - 5% - Didn't pull an Aere or Nesat. PAGASA: ''' Amang - 0% - What did this do again? (Bebeng already removed) Chedeng - 1% - See Amang's section. Dodong - 4% - The chances aren't very good, because more damage happened in China. Egay - 2% - See Dodong's section. Falcon - 0% - Don't you love fishies? Goring - 1% - Ditto. Hanna - 0% - And she did nothing (again). Ineng - 2% - Because Japan saw more from this than the Phillipines. Juaning - 95% - P1 billion of damages and 52 deaths? No way, this has a '''very big chance of being retired. Kabayan - 4% - See Dodong's section. Lando - 0% - see Amang, Chedeng, Falcon and Hanna's sections. Mina - 100% - She has been retired. Nonoy - 0% - .This was nothing. Onyok - 0% - The epic fail. Pedring - 100% - WHOA! WHAT HAPPENED HERE? Quiel - 96% - Just because Pedring was worse. Ramon - 4% - No Bebeng for the Philippines. Andrew444 13:06, July 10, 2011 (UTC) Update: Juaning has been retired. IMO, it had to go because it had both more damage and deaths than Bebeng (Aere) back in May. Hurricane Andrew (444) Update 2: Mina is gone, too. Hurricane Andrew (444) Here's mine: *TD 2- 0% - No brainer. **Amang- 0% - It turned away from the Phillipines. *Aere- 30% - It only did damage in the Phillipines. **Bebeng- Gone *Songda- 0% - Other than reaching STY strength, what did this thing do? **Chedeng- 5% - Not enough damage. *Sarika- 30% - China has seen worse than this. **Dodong- 0% - More damages were reported from China. *Haima- 10% - It did some damage but it didn't do enough. **Egay- 0% - Went above Phillipines. *Meari- 5% - Little damage reported. **Falcon- 0% - See Egay's section. *TD **Goring- 0% - See Falcon's section. *Ma-on- 5% - Japan has seen worse than this. **Ineng- 0% - It was never close. *Tokage- 0% - Fishspinner. **Hanna- 0% - See Amang's section. *Nock-Ten- 60% - Lots of deaths in this storm. **Juaning- Gone. *Muifa- 20% - See Sarika's section. **Kabayan- 0% - See Dodong's section. *TD **Lando- 0% - I love fish. *Merbok- 0% - What did this thing do? *Nanmadol- 70% - It did a lot of damage in Taiwan. **Mina- Gone. *Talas- 70% - I've changed my mind about this storm. *Noru- 0% - What a fail. *Kulap- 0% - See Noru's section. **Nonoy - 0% - I seen storms doing that, and still had a better chance of retirement. *Roke- 75% - Take Talas as an example. **Onyok - 0% - Nope.. *Sonca - 0% - I know what I'm doing. *Nesat - 50% - How bad did the damage get in Vietnam? **Pedring - Gone. *Haitang - 10% - Haima had a better retirement chance than this. *Nalgae - 40% - I can't say this will be retired, but I can't say this won't be retired. **Quiel - 40% - Pedring did more damage. *Banyan - 0% - All hopes are flushed... **Ramon - 5% - It's been overshadowed. That's for now.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 00:02, October 15, 2011 (UTC) Update 3: Pedring is gone, too. (Do we have the record number of PAGASA retirees in one year?) Hurricane Andrew (444) Yes we do. 10Q. 22:28, September 29, 2011 (UTC) Replacement names No harm in starting this. Does anyone have replacement names for Bebeng and/or Juaning? Here are some: Female J names (Juaning): Janisa, Jardena, June, Jada, Jade, Jeanette, June, Jun, Judit, Judy, Julia Female B names (Bebeng) (continuing HM99's list): Bonnie, Brittany, Bri, Bonny, Bertha, Bebe, Belinda, Belle, Bella, Bebel Female M names (Mina): (continuing Allan's list): Minnie, Machi, Maci-Lei, Macy, Madeira, Maddy, Mab, Madison,Maelianna, Magda, Mai, Maida, Maiko, Mala, Mariana Male P names (Pedring): Peter, Pazman, Pancrazio, Palti, Parker, Pembroke, Pradeep, Pruit, Pusan None of these will likely verify, but honestly, no one really cares about this section anymore. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:35, August 11, 2011 (UTC) :Actually, this was one of my favorites; I guess no-one started this up yet because not that many names have been retired. Anyway, since I'm not sure what gender Bebeng or Juaning are: :*''Bebeng'' (male): :**Bart, Benny, Bobby, Brendan, Billy, Bert, Bernie, Bertie, Barry, Blake, Bruce, Bono (Who knows? There might be U2 fans in PAGASA) --HurricaneMaker99 15:27, August 11, 2011 (UTC) :*''Bebeng'' (female): :**Barbie, Becky, Betty, Brenda, Babe, Beverly, Bianca, Brianna :*''Juaning'' (male): :**Jack, Jeff, James, Jordan, Joseph, Josh, Joshua, Joe, Johnny, Jerry, Jim, Johann :--HurricaneMaker99 15:27, August 11, 2011 (UTC) ::I don't know what name may be submitted for Juaning or Bebeng, but in the case of JMA replacements, it will be really tough to guess because replacement names for JMA names don't have to begin with the same letter as the retiree in question. There aren't any reasonable retirement canidates as of now anyways for the JMA. Neither Juaning or Bebeng hit the Philipines as hard as other storms in the past, but given the number of people they killed and the fact the Philipines are much more prepared now, they likely were pretty bad for them anyways, and I won't argue about it. Ryan1000 00:13, August 12, 2011 (UTC) :: ::HurricaneMaker, Bebeng and Juaning are both female names. Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:20, August 12, 2011 (UTC) :::Replacement for Juaning is Julia. Hurricane Andrew, you got it right! Cyclone10 19:37, August 27, 2011 (UTC) :::Cyclone10, where did you hear that fact? Hurricane Andrew (444) 23:20, August 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::Wikipedia. Cyclone10 00:49, August 28, 2011 (UTC) ::::Not on season article, but storm article.Cyclone10 00:51, August 28, 2011 (UTC) ::::: Mina is alo gone for me replacements melissa maiya misa monica milly Allanjeffs 22:43, September 2, 2011 (UTC) ::::: Allan, Mena is not a good choice because unlike Rita/Rina and Stan/Sean, not only is that name just one letter off, it sounds the same too. Hurricane Andrew (444) 01:05, September 3, 2011 (UTC) ::::: ::::: Thanks Andrew is that I was gonna wirte Misa instead of Mena Allanjeffs 03:40, September 3, 2011 (UTC) ::::: ::::: Note/s: The replacement names should be somewhat ''F''ilipino-sounding, and also, there is still no replacement for Juaning. The replacement names will be announced the year that the names would be used again, just like Milenyo and Reming of 2006 - their replacements were announced four years later (Mario and Ruby; 2010; though both of them were not used during that season due to the lack of storms). Anonymous 2.0 15: 00 (UTC+8) September 11, 2011 ::::: Pedring gone. Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:33, September 29, 2011 (UTC)